A woman arrives at a polling station to vote in the provincial election in the riding of Vancouver-Fraserview, in Vancouver, B.C., on Tuesday May 9, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

A woman arrives at a polling station to vote in the provincial election in the riding of Vancouver-Fraserview, in Vancouver, B.C., on Tuesday May 9, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Mail-in ballot uptake in B.C. influenced by political leaning, geography

Voters in the most left-leaning ridings much more likely to request packages than in right-leaning

Nearly 700,000 British Columbians have requested to vote in the provincial election by mail-in ballots – and data shows a person’s inclination to do so could be linked their political views and where they live.

Earlier this week, Elections BC said it had received 670,033 requests for the ballots as of Oct. 12 from the province’s 3,485,858 registered voters, representing nearly 20 per cent of the electorate.

Looking at the 10 most left-wing versus the 10 most right-wing ridings in the province — according to Vote Compass data from the last provincial election — there is a stark divide.

The average percentage of voters from the right-leaning ridings who requested a mail-in ballot was just over 12 per cent. In the left-leaning ridings nearly 25 per cent of voters requested ballots.

Bar Chart
Infogram

Vote Compass bases its political leaning analysis on residents’ answers to 30 issues-based questions, as opposed to self-declared political affiliation.

Richard Johnston, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia, told Black Press Media he had not done a serious evaluation of Elections BC’s mail-in ballot data, but thought there could be something to the right-left divide.

“I don’t have a comprehensive theory here, but if the pattern is as you describe it, it’s oddly consistent with what’s going on in the United States,” he said.

“There, of course, we attribute it to the politicization of the whole process thanks to Trump trying to trash the mail-in ballots, but I wonder if there is something deeper going on.”

READ MORE: BC VOTES: Election officials receive ‘unprecedented’ number of mail-in-ballot requests

Johnston offered another potential factor on why left-leaning ridings might have such a dramatically higher uptake of mail-in ballots.

“I wonder if, in the case of the general left-versus-right, that the NDP was on election alert right from the start and basically urged its people to go get their ballots so there’d be nothing getting in the way of the votes on Election Day,” he said.

Comparing the 10 most rural and 10 most urban ridings — based on population density data from a 2015 BC Electoral Commission’s report — there is also a marked difference in uptake.

On average, in the most urban ridings, 20 per cent of voters requested ballots while only 10.6 per cent did in the rural ones.

Copy: Bar Chart
Infogram

Of course, there is significant overlap between political leaning and the rural-urban divide with urban districts tending toward more progressive candidates while rural districts tend to be more conservative.

Johnston said he expected to see a rural-urban difference, but was surprised by how dramatic it was.

“I was struck that, of course, the total size of the population is smaller, but just eyeballing it, Skeena and Stikine struck me as remarkably low,” he said.

In Skeena, just 1,639 of the 21,262 registered voters, or 7.7 per cent, have requested packages while only eight per cent of voters in Stikine (1,141 of 14,250) have taken up the offer.

Even more remarkable are two Northeast B.C. ridings at 5.5 per cent for Peace River North and 4.2 per cent for Peace River South.

Johnston suggested that could be the COVID-19 factor playing out even though he thought northerners would embrace the convenience of mail-in voting.

“What thought that occurred to me there was that there’s less fear of coronavirus there than in urban ridings generally because otherwise I thought how far do you have to go to get to a poll?” he said. “You’d have to go rather further in a rural place than in urban ones, but then again, you’re also less likely probably to encounter someone who has tested positive.”

READ MORE: BC VOTES 2020: Advance voting begins today at Smithers Curling Club

Johnston was also struck by the number of mail-in ballot requests from another region of the province.

“What leapt off the table for me was Vancouver Island, that urban or rural, Vancouver Island ridings seem to have a dramatically higher number of requests relative to registered voters,” he said.

For the 14 Vancouver Island ridings the average was 26 per cent with the low being North Island at 16.7 per cent and the high Victoria-Beacon Hill at 35.4 per cent.

Johnston speculated the interest on the island, where the Green Party held three seats at the dissolution of the legislature, could be related to the very recent election of Sonia Furstenau as the party’s leader.

“There may have been Green mobilization that’s a byproduct of the leadership convention,” he said.

With many pundits positing mail-in voting could play a significant role in the outcome of the election, there are a number of swing ridings worth reviewing. The election prediction site 338Canada lists 12 districts that are too close to call.

Of these, only Skeena and Saanich North and the Islands fall dramatically outside the provincial average in terms of mail-in ballots requested at 7.7 per cent and 30.1 per cent of the electorate respectively. The rest fall within the range of 13.4 per cent (Boundary Similkameen) and 26 per cent (North Vancouver-Seymour).

Copy: Copy: Bar Chart
Infogram

Elections BC also reported it has already received back 138,500 of the packages, roughly 21 per cent of those issued as of Oct. 12. In the 2017 election only 6,500 people voted by mail.

READ MORE: B.C. could be without a new leader for multiple weeks after election day: officials

Voters have right up to election day to request a package as long as it is received by Elections BC by 8 p.m. on voting day, Oct. 24.

Because up to 800,000 people may ultimately cast their vote by mail, officials have said it could be weeks before the final results are known.

BC politicsElection 2020

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

An Interior Health nurse administers Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines to seniors and care aids in Kelowna on Tuesday, March 16. Photo: Phil McLachlan/Kelowna Capital News
Interior Health opens up vaccine eligibility in Columbia Valley to 18 years or older

Only local residents can register and book appointments as COVID-19 case counts spike in the region

Elvira D’Angelo, 92, waits to receive her COVID-19 vaccination shot at a clinic in Montreal, Sunday, March 7, 2021, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues in Canada and around the world. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes
110 new cases of COVID-19 in Interior Health

Provincial health officers announced 1,005 new cases throughout B.C.

The Rec 9 and driving range are open at Bootleg Gap in Kimberley. Full course opens April 30.
Two Kimberley golf courses open for season

Purcell and Bootleg Gap are partially open today, Trickle Creek May 7

Kimberley is developing a policy on short term rentals. Air BnB screenshot.
Kimberley is developing a policy on short term rentals

The City of Kimberley is continuing the process of adopting a strategy… Continue reading

Interior Health nurses administer Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines to seniors and care aids in Kelowna on Tuesday, March 16. (Phil McLachlan/Kelowna Capital News)
69 new cases of COVID-19 in Interior Health

The total number of cases in the region is now at 9,840 since the pandemic began

Vancouver resident Beryl Pye was witness to a “concerning,” spontaneous dance party that spread throughout social groups at Kitsilano Beach on April 16. (Screen grab/Beryl Pye)
VIDEO: Dance party erupts at Vancouver’s Kitsilano Beach to the dismay of onlookers

‘It was a complete disregard for current COVID-19 public health orders,’ says Vancouver resident Beryl Pye

Lord Tweedsmuir’s Tremmel States-Jones jumps a player and the goal line to score a touchdown against the Kelowna Owls in 2019. The face of high school football, along with a majority of other high school sports, could significantly change if a new governance proposal is passed at the B.C. School Sports AGM May 1. (Malin Jordan)
Power struggle: New governance model proposed for B.C. high school sports

Most commissions are against the new model, but B.C. School Sports (BCSS) and its board is in favour

Pall Bearers carrying the coffin of the Duke of Edinburgh, followed by the Prince of Wales, left and Princess Anne, right, into St George’s Chapel for his funeral, at Windsor Castle, in Windsor, England, Saturday April 17, 2021. (Danny Lawson/Pool via AP)
Trudeau announces $200K donation to Duke of Edinburgh award as Prince Philip laid to rest

A tribute to the late prince’s ‘remarkable life and his selfless service,’ the Prime Minister said Saturday

B.C. homeowners are being urged to take steps to prepare for the possibility of a flood by moving equipment and other assets to higher ground. (J.R. Rardon)
‘Entire province faces risk’: B.C. citizens urged to prepare for above-average spring flooding

Larger-than-normal melting snowpack poses a threat to the province as warmer weather touches down

Vancouver-based Doubleview Gold Corp. is developing claims in an area north of Telegraph Creek that occupies an important place in Tahltan oral histories, said Chad Norman Day, president of the Tahltan Central Government. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO)
B.C. Indigenous nation opposes mineral exploration in culturally sensitive area

There’s “no way” the Tahltan would ever support a mine there, says Chad Norman Day, president of its central government

Join Black Press Media and Do Some Good
Join Black Press Media and Do Some Good

Pay it Forward program supports local businesses in their community giving

Stz’uminus Elder George Harris, Ladysmith Mayor Aaron Stone, and Stz’uminus Chief Roxanne Harris opened the ceremony. (Cole Schisler photo)
Symbolic red dresses rehung along B.C. highway after vandals tore them down

Leaders from Stz’uminus First Nation and the Town of Ladysmith hung new dresses on Sat. April 17

A Western toadlet crosses the centre line of Elk View Road in Chilliwack on Aug. 26, 2010. A tunnel underneath the road has since been installed to help them migrate cross the road. Saturday, April 24 is Save the Frogs Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Progress File)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of April 18 to 24

Save the Frogs Day, Love Your Thighs Day and Scream Day are all coming up this week

Local carpenter Tyler Bohn embarked on a quest to create the East Sooke Treehouse, after seeing people build similar structures on a Discovery Channel show. (East Sooke Treehouse Facebook photo)
PHOTOS: B.C. carpenter builds fort inspired by TV’s ‘Treehouse Masters’

The whimsical structure features a wooden walking path, a loft, kitchen – and is now listed on Airbnb

Most Read