File photo. (Ragnar Haagen/News staff)

‘Subdued’ housing market predicted in B.C. through 2021: report

The Central 1 Credit Union report predicts “rising but subdued sales” over the next three years, with little movement in median home prices.

Another dismal forecast for British Columbia’s housing market, one day after the Canadian Real Estate Associate predicted home sales will continue to dip in the province next year.

Central One Credit Union, which provides services to more than 300 credit unions across Canada, says in its housing forecast for 2018 to 2021 that B.C. experienced a “mild provincial housing recession” this year.

The report points to the federal government’s mortgage stress test, higher interest rates and various provincial policy measures for the downturn and predicts “rising but subdued sales” over the next three years, with little movement in median home prices.

Bryan Yu, Central 1’s deputy chief economist, says builders have noted the shift and the result is a sharp drop in housing starts since September, especially in urban areas.

He says starts in B.C. are predicted to fall to about 32,000 units in each of the next two years after nearly 40,000 units were under construction this year and 43,500 in 2017.

But the update also predicts positive housing market outlooks in some areas, including Vancouver Island, where retirees fuel the market, and in Northern B.C., where demand is boosted by a liquefied natural gas project and associated pipelines.

Read more: B.C.’s skyrocketing real estate market will ‘correct’ in 2019: analyst

Read more: Vacancies remain low as rents rise in B.C.

As work ramps up on the $40-billion LNG Canada project in and around Kitimat, Central 1 says housing markets in the north are forecast to outperform those in southern B.C., which were hit the hardest this year.

“Sales in B.C.’s combined metro markets of Vancouver, Abbotsford-Mission, Kelowna and Victoria are down 40 per cent compared with the end of 2017, led by the Lower Mainland markets,” Yu says in a news release.

The report shows annual resale home transactions plunged 17 per cent in 2018 and median resale prices slipped two per cent to $520,000.

“Gone are the days of rapid price escalation,” says Yu.

Negative growth in residential investment will drag on the broader B.C. economy, but the Central 1 update says the effect should be blunted by ongoing consumer demand linked to the lowest unemployment rate in Canada, high job vacancy rates, wage gains and population growth.

The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

The Kimberley Dynamiters' next two exhibition games have been postponed due to an individual testing positive for COVID-19. Paul Rodgers file.
Member of Kimberley Dynamiters tests positive for COVID-19

Exhibition games in Fernie, Creston postponed

A naloxone kit. (Black Press Media file photo)
Interior Health issues drug alert for Cranbrook

Interior Health has issued a drug alert in the Cranbrook area for… Continue reading

Blue Sky Kingdom.
Kimberley’s Bruce Kirkby publishes “Blue Sky Kingdom” documenting family adventure to Zanskar

Bruce Kirkby, a prolific and world-reknowned adventurer, writer and photographer who calls… Continue reading

A Kimberley resident expresses her concerns and frustration regarding proper waste management and enforcement, resulting in unnecessary encounters with bears. File Photo.
Letter to the editor: Waste management and urban bears in Kimberley

October 29, 2020 I just want to start by saying we LOVE… Continue reading

letter
LETTERS: Response to Marysville Arena closure

City Council has decided to keep the arena closed for now

Physical distancing signs are a common sight in B.C. stores and businesses. THE CANADIAN PRESS
272 more COVID-19 cases for B.C., outbreak at oil sands project

Three new health care outbreaks, three declared over

This house at 414 Royal Ave. became notorious for its residents’ and visitors’ penchant for attracting police. It was also the site of a gruesome torture in August 2018. It was demolished in 2019. KTW
6-year sentence for Kamloops man who helped carve ‘rat’ into flesh of fellow gang member

Ricky Dennis was one of three men involved in the August 2018 attack

Cpl. Nathan Berze, media officer for the Mission RCMP, giving an update on the investigation at 11:30 a.m., Oct. 30. Patrick Penner photo.
VIDEO: Prisoner convicted of first-degree murder still at large from Mission Institution

When 10 p.m. count was conducted, staff discovered Roderick Muchikekwanape had disappeared

Among the pumpkin carvings created this year by Rick Chong of Abbotsford is this tribute to fallen officer Cont. Allan Young.
Abbotsford pumpkin carver’s creations include fallen police officer

Rick Chong carves and displays 30 pumpkins every year

Join Black Press Media and Do Some Good

Pay it Forward program supports local businesses in their community giving

An online fundraising campaign in support of the six-year-old boy, Edgar Colby, who was hit by a car on Range Road Oct. 25 has raised more than $62,000 in a day. (Submitted)
$62K raised in 1 day for boy in coma at BC Children’s after being hit by vehicle in Yukon

The boy’s aunt says the family is “very grateful” for the support they’ve received from the community

Health care employees take extensive precautions when working with people infected or suspected of having COVID-19. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young
WorkSafeBC disallows majority of COVID-19 job injury claims

Health care, social services employees filing the most claims

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole rises during Question Period in the House of Commons in Ottawa on Wednesday October 28, 2020. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
Conversion therapy ban gets approval in principle, exposes Conservative divisions

Erin O’Toole himself voted in favour of the bill, as did most Conservative MPs

Most Read