Why Justin Trudeau? Why? Why are you going to put us through another election, only two years after the last one?
Everyone now knows the writ will be dropping soon, likely in mid-August, for an end-of-September, very-early-October election, as Trudeau and his ministers have been exhibiting an abundance of writ-dropping behaviours lately.
Remember the old Hinterland Who’s Who?
“The red-capped Liberal displays its full vote-enticing colours as it struts through its territory, dropping funding announcements and promises.”
Political pundit conventional wisdom says that the Liberals are likely to squeak out a majority, maybe, but oh those margins are slim. The theory is that Canadians are feeling fairly optimistic right now, as we finally can see the end of the pandemic, and things return normal. As the economy opens up and business picks up, people may well feel inclined to reward Trudeau and his Liberals with votes.
At least that appears to be what he’s gambling on. But he could also very well end up with another minority.
Let’s check in with our buddy Angus Reid. The polling organization has the Liberals with a very slim two point lead in the polls, 33 per cent to 31 for the Conservative Party of Canada. The NDP has 20 per cent support, the Bloc Quebecois 7 per cent, and other/independent 6 per cent. The Green Party has 3 per cent support and look for that to go down further as there is great unrest in Green land. A confidence vote to oust leader Annamie Paul was abruptly cancelled last week with no explanation, and the battle has now gone to the courts. Not a great position heading into a campaign.
A separate poll by Leger and the Association for Candian Studies has the Liberals at 34 per cent of decided voerrs adn the COC at 29 per cent. The NDP are at 22 per cent in that poll.
On the plus side for the Liberals, they continue to be more competitive in Ontario and Quebec, where like it or not, most Canadian elections are decided. That’s just a fact. The Liberals lead by four points in Ontario and lead the Bloc in Quebec by three points. And the CPC has only 16 per cent support in Quebec.
As for the leaders themselves, the report is negative. While the country continues to give Trudeau a decent score on his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, he is falling short in other areas and his disapproval rating sits at 40 per cent. Far from the heady days of 2015, the sunny days of Trudeau’s popularity, people are now a little more ‘meh’ on the man. Most will say he has been somewhat of a disappointment. But on the other hand, those same people aren’t likely to vote Conservative.
And the CPC leader Erin O’Toole has his own problems with an unfavourable rating of 58 per cent. That number just won’t budge for him. Canadians have now had a chance to get to know him and the majority still don’t like what they see.
That plays to Trudeau’s favour of course. What doesn’t is the high ratings garnered by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. His favourability ratings are positive, something only he and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet can claim.
But all in all, the picture looks very similar to the 2019 election, and my bet is another Liberal minority.
Which again begs the question, why Justin? Why?