We’ve only got a little over a week to go until Canada votes. This will no doubt be a great relief to many. But there’s a concern hanging over this election.
What is turn out going to be like?
I suspect it’s going to be low.
In the heady days of 2015, voters turned out at over 68 per cent participation, the highest number since 1993.
But these were motivated voters. Harper fatigue was strong among the electorate and excitement over what the young, dynamic Justin Trudeau could provide was high.
But in 2019 things are different.
Trudeau has proven to be a profound disappointment, Scheer continues to plod along without really exciting anyone, and Singh has finally introduced himself, but it’s likely too late.
The Greens are definitely getting stronger, and that’s going to hurt someone on the left.
We’re in a bit of a hold your nose and vote situation, and that definitely has an impact on turnout numbers. When no one is generating much enthusiasm, a lot of people won’t bother to vote.
With that being said, it’s going to come down to a numbers game, and as usual the central battlefield will be Ontario and Quebec.
338 Canada reports this week that support for the Conservative Party of Canada is actually falling off in Quebec where the party is lagging behind the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois. 338 analysis says that the collapse of the NDP in Quebec is not benefitting the Conservatives at all. Scheer needs to make gains in Quebec because they are not going to make significant gains in Ontario, according to 338Canada. Their poll says the Liberals still have a “significant edge” in Ontario.
Maclean’s Magazine says that the Conservatives are at best in a statistical tie with the Liberals in Ontario, and at worst they are 10 points behind.
But back to Quebec, the only party with any real momentum, according to 338Canada, is the Bloc, which isn’t good news for the Liberals either.
Right now, 338Canada’s seat projection in Quebec has the Liberals with anywhere from 31 to 54 seats, the Block with 10 to 31, and the Conservatives with 8 to 15. The NDP are projected to protect just two seats, and the People’s Party with .7 of a seat, which is a bit of a head scratcher.
CBC reports that the average of all polls across the country show the Liberals at 34.2 per cent and the Conservatives at 33.0 per cent. There’s your statistical dead heat. NDP support is at 13.8 per cent and the Greens have 9.3 per cent. The PPC has 2.3 per cent support.
CBC has the probability of the Conservatives winning a majority at just 10 per cent. There is a 27 per cent chance the Conservatives win the most seats but not a majority; a 30 per cent chance the Liberals do the same; and a 32 per cent chance of the Liberals winning a majority.
These numbers clearly show a country undecided, and not enthused, thus low voter turn out is a big possibility.