We’re almost through the first quarter of the year and it’s time to once again look at premiers across the country and see how they’re faring in terms of gaining the respect, or ire, of their citizens. Angus Reid polling has all the mostly good news.
In what may mirror the mood of the population as COVID restrictions are easing, at least for now, almost every premier is up. And those who are down are barely down. In fact the lowest a premier dropped was 3 per cent, and that was Quebec’s Francois Legault, who has maintained a positive rating all through the pandemic despite some of the harshest restrictions. And he remains above 50 per cent approval, at 52 per cent.
The issue that may be hitting premiers whose numbers are slipping slightly is inflation.
While blaming the government for inflation, especially high gas prices, is easy and not always fair, there is also the fact that provinces do tax gas. In some cases, like British Columbia, 54 cents of every litre is taxes.
And people feel, perhaps rightly, that in times of surging prices, those taxes could be peeled back some.
Angus believes that it is Legault’s reluctance to remove any of the gas taxes that may be hitting his numbers.
The same could be said for John Horgan here in B.C. He remains on the right side of positive at 55 per cent approval, but he has taken a hit, and it’s likely due to refusal to bend on gas taxes. In fact the carbon tax on gas will increase this spring. He is still getting high grades for guiding the province through the pandemic as B.C.’s restrictions are loosening a little more slowly than the rest of the country.
The premier with the most timely rise in esteem is Doug Ford in Ontario, who has jumped 13 per cent in the estimation of his citizens. He’s still under water at 43 per cent but it’s a lot better than it was say six months ago. According to Angus, Ford’s numbers have been declining for two years. The bump is likely due to him removing the vaccine passport requirement a few weeks ago, and more recently the mask mandate. Ford was also lucky to have his numbers rise as the majority of Ontarians believe he was not effective during the protest in Ottawa last month. In their opinion, he merely passed the buck to the feds and didn’t improve the situation at all. Still a 13 per cent jump is encouraging as Ford will fight an election later this spring.
Another premier who faces an electorate soon is Alberta’s Jason Kenney. Kenney remains one of Canada’s most unpopular premiers at 30 per cent approval. And that’s up 4 per cent. Kenney, notably, did roll back some gas taxes, and while some may have appreciated it — therefore the small bump — he was also promptly accused of trying to buy an election. His main problem is that he appears to be equally reviled on the left and the right. Even his party doesn’t support him fully. Going into an election, that’s troubling. I predict an unhappy spring for Jason Kenney.
The most popular premier in the country, up 17 per cent is Tim Houston of Nova Scotia. He’s at 73 per cent. Heady numbers. But he’s new. I suspect he’ll be back down to earth soon.
The least popular, behind even the sorry Kenney, is Heather Stefanson of Manitoba at 25 per cent. She’s also new, but she was health minister during the height of the pandemic, which Manitobans thought previous premier Brian Pallister did a poor job of handling, according to Angus. So she may be wearing his mistakes as well as her own. Regardless she’s lucky she doesn’t have an election any time soon.
So the mood is generally good news for premiers. We are all feeling a little better as restrictions lift, sunlight hours lengthen and temperatures warm. But a warning to premiers and all of us, summer is short. Winter will return. And there’s an Omicron variant BA.2 already rising.