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The long, bitter CPC leadership campaign is down to two likely winners

What to do, what to do? These are the questions Conservative Party members must be asking themselves as the long, bitter leadership campaign continues.

What to do, what to do? These are the questions Conservative Party members must be asking themselves as the long, bitter leadership campaign continues.

Our old pal Angus Reid has a new poll out that neatly sizes up the problem facing those who will vote for leader.

The bombastic, polarizing Pierre Poilievre, newly endorsed by former PM Stephen Harper, has the support of the Conservative base. But Angus puts him in a dead heat with Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest among Canadians in general, at 34 per cent each.

The dilemma for Conservatives is voter intent. Charest is proving to have far more appeal to those who might once have voted Liberal or even NDP. One in five former Liberal voters, and one in ten former NDP voters say they could vote for Charest. And that is very important. By the time the next federal election rolls around, Trudeau-fatigue is likely to be very real, just as Harper fatigue was in 2015. The Conservatives need support from people who previously voted for other parties.

Charest has appeal to those people. He is far less inflammatory in his speech, far more familiar to those leftish-leaners who would occasionally vote for the Red Tory. Charest does lose ground among those who may have support the People’s Party. He loses 12 per cent to the People Party. But still, Angus says his appeal to centre-left voters creates a 10 point gap over the Liberals.

These are the people that the Conservative Party must win over if they hope to win the next election.

But the base, oh the base, is fully on board with Poilievre. Poilievre has the support of those who voted PPC in 2021, as well as 85 per cent of past CPC voters. But — and this is crucial — he gets no support from past Liberal or NDP voters.

Angus Reid says a Poilievre-led CPC holds a five-point vote intention advantage over the Liberal Party.

In Ontario, where like it or not, many elections are decided, the Charest-led CPC have a four point advantage over the Liberals. Under Poilievre, they trail by three. Charest appears to hold a considerable advantage among female voters as well. Charest is also helped by the disqualification of fellow candidate Patrick Brown, who appealed to many of the same voters.

Just last week a committee reviewing Brown’s stunning disqualification said the party had enough evidence to remove Brown from the candidate list. They say Brown used money orders to purchase memberships and allowed non-compliant membership sales through a portal. It says there are allegations that Brown allowed more than 500 non-compliant membership sales.

Brown has claimed that he was targeted due to corruption in the party itself and collusion with Poilievre. He says the party has the coronation of Poilievre in their plans. However, it appears that Brown is going to go away relatively quietly, as he has announced he will be pursuing re-election as Mayor of Brampton, Ontario, although he threatened the CPC with legal action.

While it seems natural this would benefit Charest, some pundits say not so. Some say Poilievre benefits more, and Brown seems to agree. A major rival is removed, a major rival who would have taken a lot of votes in the metro-Toronto area. Not all Brown supporters will go to Charest, some pundits say not many at all.

In any event, it’s going to come down to Poilievre against Charest in September. Poilievre has said that he has signed new voting members in every riding in Canada. That indicates very broad support. Charest questions those numbers. He says the claim of over 311,000 new members signed up by the Poilievre campaign is all spin.

“He keeps inflating the numbers, no one believes the numbers,” Charest told CTV’s Question Period.

The squabbling continues.

One thing is for sure, whoever wins, it is very unlikely their rival will be invited for dinner, or appointed to cabinet.



carolyn.grant@kimberleybulletin.com

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Carolyn Grant

About the Author: Carolyn Grant

I have been with the Kimberley Bulletin since 2001 and have enjoyed every moment of it.
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